No watches are valid as of Wed Feb 19 21:01:06 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Fire weather potential appears limited through the middle of next week across the country. Long-range ensemble guidance suggests anomalously cold temperatures will linger through the end of the work week across the southern Plains and Southeast. These cold temperatures, combined with widespread recent rain/snow, will limit fuel status for the southeastern quadrant of the country. Persistent surface high pressure over the central U.S. will limit gradient winds across the Plains and Midwest through the weekend. Unseasonably strong/highly-amplified upper ridging along the West Coast will maintain mild, but dry, conditions for the Southwest/Great Basin with rain chances for the Pacific Northwest through early next week. Some long-range deterministic solutions - notably the recent 00z GFS - suggest fire concerns may emerge across the southern Plains around the D7/Tue to D8/Wed time frame as a surface low deepens across the Plains. However, considerable ensemble spread and poor inter-model agreement yields low confidence in this potential at this range. ..Moore.. 02/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Fire weather potential appears limited through the middle of next week across the country. Long-range ensemble guidance suggests anomalously cold temperatures will linger through the end of the work week across the southern Plains and Southeast. These cold temperatures, combined with widespread recent rain/snow, will limit fuel status for the southeastern quadrant of the country. Persistent surface high pressure over the central U.S. will limit gradient winds across the Plains and Midwest through the weekend. Unseasonably strong/highly-amplified upper ridging along the West Coast will maintain mild, but dry, conditions for the Southwest/Great Basin with rain chances for the Pacific Northwest through early next week. Some long-range deterministic solutions - notably the recent 00z GFS - suggest fire concerns may emerge across the southern Plains around the D7/Tue to D8/Wed time frame as a surface low deepens across the Plains. However, considerable ensemble spread and poor inter-model agreement yields low confidence in this potential at this range. ..Moore.. 02/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain unlikely through tonight. ...20Z Update... A linear MCS with a parallel rain shield continues to approach the western FL peninsula coastline amid modest buoyancy. A weakening trend is still expected with this line, though the anticipated coverage of lightning flashes warrants the continuance of thunder probabilities. A strong wind gust is possible with the leading edge of the MCS as it reaches the southwestern FL peninsula shoreline later this afternoon. However, overall weakening trends and limited buoyancy suggests stronger wind gusts should be sparse. ..Squitieri.. 02/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low situated over the Upper Midwest with a large-scale trough east of the Rockies. Visible-satellite and lightning data show a southwest-northeast oriented linear cluster of thunderstorms over the central Gulf of America immediately ahead of a cold front pushing southeast. This thunderstorm activity will approach the west coast of the FL Peninsula this afternoon. 12 UTC initialized model guidance agrees with earlier model data in the notion of this activity weakening as it moves across the shelf waters and approaches the coast. While low/deep-layer flow appears conditionally favorable for organized convection along/very near the coast, the meager thermodynamic environment should limit the overall threat for damaging gusts. Elsewhere, cold/stable conditions will prevail east of the Rockies. Precipitation associated with non-thunderstorms is forecast across the Pacific Northwest moving into the northern Rockies and Great Basin. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain unlikely through tonight. ...20Z Update... A linear MCS with a parallel rain shield continues to approach the western FL peninsula coastline amid modest buoyancy. A weakening trend is still expected with this line, though the anticipated coverage of lightning flashes warrants the continuance of thunder probabilities. A strong wind gust is possible with the leading edge of the MCS as it reaches the southwestern FL peninsula shoreline later this afternoon. However, overall weakening trends and limited buoyancy suggests stronger wind gusts should be sparse. ..Squitieri.. 02/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low situated over the Upper Midwest with a large-scale trough east of the Rockies. Visible-satellite and lightning data show a southwest-northeast oriented linear cluster of thunderstorms over the central Gulf of America immediately ahead of a cold front pushing southeast. This thunderstorm activity will approach the west coast of the FL Peninsula this afternoon. 12 UTC initialized model guidance agrees with earlier model data in the notion of this activity weakening as it moves across the shelf waters and approaches the coast. While low/deep-layer flow appears conditionally favorable for organized convection along/very near the coast, the meager thermodynamic environment should limit the overall threat for damaging gusts. Elsewhere, cold/stable conditions will prevail east of the Rockies. Precipitation associated with non-thunderstorms is forecast across the Pacific Northwest moving into the northern Rockies and Great Basin. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday a split-flow regime will exist with northwest flow from the northern Plains into the Great lakes, and a stronger belt of westerly flow from the Southwest into the Southeast. The overarching theme will continue to be stable conditions due to high pressure over the central and eastern states, though surface winds will become easterly from the Bahamas westward across the Gulf of America. While an upper low is forecast to move across AZ and NM late in the period, little instability is forecast with this system as it drops southeast out of the Four Corners overnight. Given nocturnal timing, lack of heating and minimal destabilization suggest thunderstorms will remain unlikely. ..Jewell.. 02/19/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of far eastern AZ and northwest NM. Recent guidance has trended towards stronger wind speeds across the Four Corners region as an upper trough passes over the region tomorrow afternoon. Most deterministic solutions suggest sustained winds will be near 20 mph, and latest HREF guidance shows minimum speeds between 15-20 mph across the region with high probability for RH values between 15-20%. Fuels are not overly favorable for rapid fire spread, but dry conditions through tomorrow coupled with 30-day rainfall deficits on the order of 5-25% of normal may promote adequate drying of finer fuels to support a low-end fire concern. ..Moore.. 02/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on D2 - Thursday across the CONUS. As an arctic air mass has spread in across much of the central US, including the southern Plains where fuels are the driest, and widespread precipitation has fallen, cool and wet conditions will keep fire concerns low. Across the western US, an upper level wave will bring increased flow aloft into the Great Basin. Some increase in surface winds will be possible across central Arizona into New Mexico, however, winds look to be light where fuels are the driest. This will preclude the need to include any Elevated areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will shift east across the OH Valley, with an intense upper jet sweeping across the Southeast. As this trough exits the East Coast into Friday morning, a weaker wave will progress out of the Great Basin into the Four Corners states. At the surface, a sprawling area of high pressure will exist over the central and eastern CONUS, providing strong offshore flow over the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts. Weak instability over far southern FL will quickly dissipate as dry air spreads south, and as such thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Jewell.. 02/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will shift east across the OH Valley, with an intense upper jet sweeping across the Southeast. As this trough exits the East Coast into Friday morning, a weaker wave will progress out of the Great Basin into the Four Corners states. At the surface, a sprawling area of high pressure will exist over the central and eastern CONUS, providing strong offshore flow over the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts. Weak instability over far southern FL will quickly dissipate as dry air spreads south, and as such thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Jewell.. 02/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low situated over the Upper Midwest with a large-scale trough east of the Rockies. Visible-satellite and lightning data show a southwest-northeast oriented linear cluster of thunderstorms over the central Gulf of America immediately ahead of a cold front pushing southeast. This thunderstorm activity will approach the west coast of the FL Peninsula this afternoon. 12 UTC initialized model guidance agrees with earlier model data in the notion of this activity weakening as it moves across the shelf waters and approaches the coast. While low/deep-layer flow appears conditionally favorable for organized convection along/very near the coast, the meager thermodynamic environment should limit the overall threat for damaging gusts. Elsewhere, cold/stable conditions will prevail east of the Rockies. Precipitation associated with non-thunderstorms is forecast across the Pacific Northwest moving into the northern Rockies and Great Basin. ..Smith/Lyons.. 02/19/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0921 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather concerns remain limited today with no forecast changes required. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Moore.. 02/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low today across the CONUS. Height rises are expected across the western US and Rockies as an upper level high builds in. Across the Plains, an arctic air mass is in place with below normal temperatures and recent precipitation. Less precipitation fell across portions of western Texas where drier fuels remain, however, light winds and higher relative humidity is forecast. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Feb 19 13:55:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A semi-organized cluster of thunderstorms remains off the southeastern LA Coast this morning. This activity will track towards, and eventually reach, the west-central FL Peninsula later this afternoon. Nearly all guidance shows rapid weakening of the convective cluster as it moves over cooler shelf waters and approaches the FL Coast. The 12Z TBW sounding, along with various NAM/RAP forecast soundings this afternoon from Tampa Bay and vicinity, show rather poor low/mid-level lapse rates, which should hamper development of any more than weak instability inland. While low/deep-layer flow appears conditionally favorable for organized convection along/very near the coast, the meager thermodynamic environment should limit the overall threat for severe wind gusts. Still, an occasional strong gust may occur as the cluster weakens. ..Gleason/Dean.. 02/19/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Persistent surface high pressure across portions of the Southeast and Gulf Coast regions will result in a dearth of boundary layer moisture through at least Day 6/Mon. This will preclude much potential for thunderstorms. By the end of the period, around Days 7-8/Tue-Wed, an upper ridge over the western U.S. will weaken as it shifts east toward the Plains, owing to an upper shortwave trough developing southeast across the Rockies. This will result in lee low development across the southern Plains. Forecast guidance is in fairly good agreement even at this extended range that a surface low will move from the southern Plains to the Mid-South vicinity. In response, southerly low-level flow across the western Gulf will transport modest moisture northward ahead of a cold front from the ArkLaTex into the Deep South by Day 8/Wed. While severe potential appears limited by weak moisture return, thunderstorm potential is likely to increase late Day 7/Tue into Day 8/Wed. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on D2 - Thursday across the CONUS. As an arctic air mass has spread in across much of the central US, including the southern Plains where fuels are the driest, and widespread precipitation has fallen, cool and wet conditions will keep fire concerns low. Across the western US, an upper level wave will bring increased flow aloft into the Great Basin. Some increase in surface winds will be possible across central Arizona into New Mexico, however, winds look to be light where fuels are the driest. This will preclude the need to include any Elevated areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 02/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on D2 - Thursday across the CONUS. As an arctic air mass has spread in across much of the central US, including the southern Plains where fuels are the driest, and widespread precipitation has fallen, cool and wet conditions will keep fire concerns low. Across the western US, an upper level wave will bring increased flow aloft into the Great Basin. Some increase in surface winds will be possible across central Arizona into New Mexico, however, winds look to be light where fuels are the driest. This will preclude the need to include any Elevated areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 02/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low today across the CONUS. Height rises are expected across the western US and Rockies as an upper level high builds in. Across the Plains, an arctic air mass is in place with below normal temperatures and recent precipitation. Less precipitation fell across portions of western Texas where drier fuels remain, however, light winds and higher relative humidity is forecast. ..Thornton.. 02/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low today across the CONUS. Height rises are expected across the western US and Rockies as an upper level high builds in. Across the Plains, an arctic air mass is in place with below normal temperatures and recent precipitation. Less precipitation fell across portions of western Texas where drier fuels remain, however, light winds and higher relative humidity is forecast. ..Thornton.. 02/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure will persist across much of the CONUS on Friday. Gulf moisture will remain offshore, and the cold/stable boundary layer will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 02/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure will persist across much of the CONUS on Friday. Gulf moisture will remain offshore, and the cold/stable boundary layer will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 02/19/2025 Read more