SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas today. Additional isolated thunderstorms may occur in portions of Oregon/Washington. No severe weather is expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A broad fetch of west to northwest flow aloft will exist across the northern CONUS today, with the primary feature of interest being a southern-stream shortwave trough that will move from the southern Plains into the northwestern GOA. High pressure will remain over the southeastern states, which will limit northward moisture return at the surface. Given extensive cloud cover from the resulting moisture advection atop the surface stable layer, little if any heating is expected over those areas. As the shortwave trough continues eastward, low pressure will form south of the quasi-stationary front draped across the northern GOA, with a strong wind shift with the cold front behind the low. Widespread rain and elevated thunderstorms will exist over much of LA and into southern MS during the day, aided by southerly winds and theta-e advection at 850 mb. MUCAPE around 500 j/kg will be common over the northern Gulf Coast, although given largely saturated profiles, lapse rates may not favor much hail potential. As such, severe weather is not forecast, with widespread general thunderstorm activity centered over LA and into southern MS. Elsewhere, cooling aloft with a progressive wave will impact the Pacific Northwest late, with minimal instability supporting a few embedded/weak thunderstorms from the WA Cascades into western OR. ..Jewell/Halbert.. 02/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms remain possible from the middle and upper Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley late today and overnight. ...Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing from southeast TX into the northwestern Gulf, well north of the surface front. Periodically strong storm cores have been noted, primarily offshore, with indications of small hail. Continued cooling aloft ahead of the shortwave trough moving across TX, as well as persistent southerly 850 mb winds, will maintain substantial elevated instability through Sunday morning. As such, a few strong storms, perhaps producing localized small hail, are expected from eastern TX into LA. While an isolated marginally severe report cannot be ruled out over land, the more robust convection is expected to remain over the Gulf. ..Jewell.. 02/23/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Feb 22 21:19:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Feb 22 21:19:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 021200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited through the remainder of February. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show persistent upper ridging across the western CONUS through the remainder of the month before a possible transition to a more progressive pattern (characterized by high amplitude trough intrusions into the Southwest) by early March. In the meantime, this synoptic regime will favor dry conditions across the southern Great Basin into the Four Corners and southern Plains with light/scattered rain/snow chances elsewhere through the upcoming week. Additionally, a return to seasonal/above-seasonal temperatures is anticipated for much of the Southwest and High Plains, which should aid in gradual fuel drying where snow cover is minimal. Fire weather concerns could emerge across the southern High Plains where fuels have already been slowly drying (denoted by a slow uptick in ERCs) and winds may increase into the mid/upper teens early next week as low-amplitude upper disturbances pass over region. Deterministic solutions suggest that D3/Monday may see the best potential for elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions, but spread in ensemble guidance limits confidence in the potential for critical fire weather conditions. More robust fire weather concerns are possible beginning around D7/Friday and beyond as the upper-level regime becomes more progressive, but considerable spread in both deterministic and ensembles at this range limits forecast confidence. ..Moore.. 02/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 021200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited through the remainder of February. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show persistent upper ridging across the western CONUS through the remainder of the month before a possible transition to a more progressive pattern (characterized by high amplitude trough intrusions into the Southwest) by early March. In the meantime, this synoptic regime will favor dry conditions across the southern Great Basin into the Four Corners and southern Plains with light/scattered rain/snow chances elsewhere through the upcoming week. Additionally, a return to seasonal/above-seasonal temperatures is anticipated for much of the Southwest and High Plains, which should aid in gradual fuel drying where snow cover is minimal. Fire weather concerns could emerge across the southern High Plains where fuels have already been slowly drying (denoted by a slow uptick in ERCs) and winds may increase into the mid/upper teens early next week as low-amplitude upper disturbances pass over region. Deterministic solutions suggest that D3/Monday may see the best potential for elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions, but spread in ensemble guidance limits confidence in the potential for critical fire weather conditions. More robust fire weather concerns are possible beginning around D7/Friday and beyond as the upper-level regime becomes more progressive, but considerable spread in both deterministic and ensembles at this range limits forecast confidence. ..Moore.. 02/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms remain possible from the middle and upper Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley late today and overnight. ...20Z Update... Low-level warm-air and moisture advection is underway across the TX Coast, as shown by 925-700 mb trends in the last few mesoanalysis runs. Thunderstorms have developed over the past couple of hours just west of Houston and over immediate adjacent open waters. With continued low-level warm-air advection, thunderstorms should only increase in coverage through the day into tonight, from the TX Coast into the Sabine Valley. ..Squitieri.. 02/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025/ ...TX/LA... Morning surface analysis shows a weak quasi-stationary front across the central Gulf, with a wave apparent off the coast of south TX. Persistent southerly low-level flow to the east of the surface wave will result in warm-advection/lift and an increasing threat of scattered thunderstorms over the western Gulf, and into the mid/upper TX and LA coasts. After midnight, a more pronounced shortwave trough will approach this region and may expand the deep convective risk westward into the mid/south TX coast as well. Earlier model runs suggested this late-night convection could pose a risk of hail, but recent guidance is less confident in this scenario. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Ensemble guidance continues to show some potential for localized elevated conditions in the lee of the Sacramento and Sandia Manzano mountains of eastern NM and across east/southeast WY into the far western NE Panhandle. However, coverage of elevated conditions and unreceptive fuel status should limit fire weather concerns for both regions. ..Moore.. 02/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... Warm and dry downslope winds appear likely in ensemble guidance across portions of central New Mexico, where winds could reach 15-20 MPH and relative humidity values drop below 20%. However, current ERC fuels guidance suggests the overall threat for wildfire ignition and spread is low. Given the lack of receptive fuels, there will be no introduction of fire-weather highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across South Florida and coastal Oregon/Washington on Monday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will continue through the Gulf towards the western Florida Peninsula on Monday. In the Northwest, a compact, strong shortwave will pivot through the region during the afternoon and evening. A modest surface low will accompany the eastern trough, with a weak surface boundary draped across central Florida. Though shear across central/southern Florida will be sufficient for organized convection. Weak lapse rates and muted surface heating due to preceding clouds/precipitation are expected to limit potential for severe weather. A conditionally stronger storm would be possible if surface heating is greater than expected near the boundary. This outcome is too uncertain for severe probabilities. With a stronger shortwave than Sunday day, potential for thunderstorms will be slightly higher. Wind fields will be strong, but buoyancy is not expected to be overly large. A stronger, convectively-enhanced gust is possible right along the coast, but potential for more than an isolated/marginal severe concern is rather low. ..Wendt.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of southern Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas on Sunday. Additional isolated thunderstorms may occur in portions of coastal Oregon/Washington. No severe weather is expected. ...Synopsis... Cool and stable conditions at the surface will continue to prevail across the CONUS on Sunday. A shortwave trough moving southeastward through Texas will induce a weak surface low just south of the coastal plain regions. Greater moisture/buoyancy are still expected to remain offshore, however. Even so, weak elevated instability will exist in portions of southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered convection may produce lightning, particularly near the coast. In the Northwest, an initial compact shortwave will move ashore during the late afternoon into the evening. While lightning production will be minimal, a few stronger elevated storms could become deep enough for charge separation along the immediate coast. ..Wendt.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of southern Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas on Sunday. Additional isolated thunderstorms may occur in portions of coastal Oregon/Washington. No severe weather is expected. ...Synopsis... Cool and stable conditions at the surface will continue to prevail across the CONUS on Sunday. A shortwave trough moving southeastward through Texas will induce a weak surface low just south of the coastal plain regions. Greater moisture/buoyancy are still expected to remain offshore, however. Even so, weak elevated instability will exist in portions of southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered convection may produce lightning, particularly near the coast. In the Northwest, an initial compact shortwave will move ashore during the late afternoon into the evening. While lightning production will be minimal, a few stronger elevated storms could become deep enough for charge separation along the immediate coast. ..Wendt.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are needed. Dominant surface high pressure across the central CONUS will continue to limit wind speeds for most regions for today, though dry conditions will persist for portions of the Four Corners and southeastern states. ..Moore.. 02/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A southerly shift in winds across the Southern Plains will result in a return to warmer and dryer conditions, but weak surface winds and generally unreceptive fuels will limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms remain possible from the middle and upper Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley late today and overnight. ...TX/LA... Morning surface analysis shows a weak quasi-stationary front across the central Gulf, with a wave apparent off the coast of south TX. Persistent southerly low-level flow to the east of the surface wave will result in warm-advection/lift and an increasing threat of scattered thunderstorms over the western Gulf, and into the mid/upper TX and LA coasts. After midnight, a more pronounced shortwave trough will approach this region and may expand the deep convective risk westward into the mid/south TX coast as well. Earlier model runs suggested this late-night convection could pose a risk of hail, but recent guidance is less confident in this scenario. ..Hart/Weinman.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms remain possible from the middle and upper Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley late today and overnight. A few storms could produce some small hail. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs progressing through the southern stream, with the lead wave moving through the Ozark Plateau and the second wave dropping through AZ towards northern Mexico. The lead wave is forecast to continue eastward, moving quickly through the TN Valley and central Appalachians before moving off the Carolina coast. The second shortwave is expected to pivot more eastward as it moves along the US/Mexico border before continuing across the southern High Plains and reaching central TX by early Sunday morning. Farther northwest, a shortwave trough and attendant strong mid-level flow will likely reach the Pacific Northwest coast late tonight/early tomorrow. Some deeper convective cores are possible within the frontal band preceding this shortwave, a few of which could be deep enough to produce occasional lightning flashes. ...Upper TX Coast into Southwest LA... Recent surface analysis shows that the cold and dry airmass remains firmly in place across the southern Plains, with surface ridging anchored over AR maintaining offshore flow. This airmass is expected to remain largely in place, with only modest modification throughout the day. Much of the guidance keeps surface temperatures in the 40s along the TX and LA coasts throughout the period. Low to mid-level southwesterly flow is expected to increase as the second shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis approaches the region. Cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this shortwave as well. As a result, despite persistent surface stability, some elevated buoyancy is expected, with showers and embedded thunderstorms anticipated from the early afternoon through Sunday morning. The general expectation is for thunderstorm coverage to maximize after 06Z Sunday as the shortwave moves through TX, with an associated increase in large-scale ascent and decrease of the mid-level temperatures. Fairly strong shear within the cloud-bearing layer will overlap this modest thermodynamic environment, resulting in the potential for a few strong, more persistent, and organized updrafts embedded within the large precipitation shield. Some of these storms may become strong enough to produce hail, but most should be sub-severe (i.e. less than 1" in diameter), and the overall severe coverage is still expected to be below 5%. ..Mosier/Grams.. 02/22/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... At the beginning of the forecast period, dry conditions will be prevalent across the entire Gulf basin. Southerly flow and some moisture return will begin Tuesday and Wednesday before another cold front pushes dry air into the Gulf again early Thursday. This continued dry air across the Gulf will continue to limit moisture availability needed for any severe weather threat. Beyond D8/Sat there is a better signal for ridging across the central Plains and a return to quality low-level moisture across parts of Texas. However, until that time, severe weather potential will remain low. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across South Florida on Monday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Discussion... A positively-tilted, mid-level shortwave trough and associated surface low will traverse the Gulf and cross the Florida Peninsula on Monday. Some weak instability will be present which may be sufficient for a few thunderstorms, particularly across the Keys and into far South Florida. While effective shear will be sufficient for organized convection (40-45 knots), weak lapse rates and relatively weak instability will likely inhibit the overall threat. Therefore, while thunderstorms are possible, severe weather remains unlikely. A strong mid-level jet and associated trough will move into the Northwest on Monday. As temperatures cool aloft, sufficient instability should develop for isolated lightning, particularly closer to the coast. ..Bentley.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across South Florida on Monday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Discussion... A positively-tilted, mid-level shortwave trough and associated surface low will traverse the Gulf and cross the Florida Peninsula on Monday. Some weak instability will be present which may be sufficient for a few thunderstorms, particularly across the Keys and into far South Florida. While effective shear will be sufficient for organized convection (40-45 knots), weak lapse rates and relatively weak instability will likely inhibit the overall threat. Therefore, while thunderstorms are possible, severe weather remains unlikely. A strong mid-level jet and associated trough will move into the Northwest on Monday. As temperatures cool aloft, sufficient instability should develop for isolated lightning, particularly closer to the coast. ..Bentley.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of southern Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas on Sunday. No severe weather is expected. ...Discussion... Elevated thunderstorms will be ongoing across the Gulf at the beginning of the period with some lightning activity possible across much of southern Louisiana and perhaps parts of Southeast Texas. The greater instability, and thus the best chance for marginal severe hail, will remain well offshore in the central Gulf. By Sunday evening, the surface low and associated surface front will move far enough southeast into the central Gulf to bring an end to thunderstorm activity by mid to late evening. These thunderstorms may approach the Florida coast by late in the period, but are expected to arrive after 12Z. ..Bentley.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of southern Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas on Sunday. No severe weather is expected. ...Discussion... Elevated thunderstorms will be ongoing across the Gulf at the beginning of the period with some lightning activity possible across much of southern Louisiana and perhaps parts of Southeast Texas. The greater instability, and thus the best chance for marginal severe hail, will remain well offshore in the central Gulf. By Sunday evening, the surface low and associated surface front will move far enough southeast into the central Gulf to bring an end to thunderstorm activity by mid to late evening. These thunderstorms may approach the Florida coast by late in the period, but are expected to arrive after 12Z. ..Bentley.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms remain possible from the middle and upper Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley late today and overnight. A few storms could produce at least small hail. ...Synopsis and Discussion... High pressure will remain situated over much of the central and eastern states, beneath moderate westerly flow aloft. Within the southern stream, a shortwave trough will move into the southern Plains late, with cooling aloft spreading into TX and toward the Sabine Valley into Sunday morning. While the surface air mass will remain cool and stable, elevated instability will develop ahead of this feature, aided by southerly 850 mb winds over 30 kt. Precipitation including thunderstorms should develop over eastern TX during the afternoon and evening, and spread eastward across LA overnight. MUCAPE in excess of 500 J/kg will develop over eastern TX from evening into the overnight, with increasing deep-layer shear through the cloud-bearing layer. Model forecast soundings vary with degree of instability, lapse rate and shear combinations, but cool sub-cloud layers will favor minimal melting of any hail that does develop. At this time it appears most hail will be below severe limits, with sporadic strong cores within the larger precipitation shield. ..Jewell/Halbert.. 02/22/2025 Read more