SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... The previous forecast remains on track with some modifications made to reflect recent observed trends and 12z guidance. Regional radars show light to moderate precipitation falling across southern CA - mainly on the windward side of the coastal terrain. MRMS QPE suggests most locations on the lee side of the coastal ranges have not received wetting rainfall, so impacts to fuels should remain limited. 16 UTC surface observations show downslope winds beginning to increase with gusts between 40-60 mph becoming more common at higher elevation. As of 16 UTC, cloud cover is modulating the influence of downslope warming/drying with RH values generally above 30%; however, relative humidity is expected to quickly decline by mid/late afternoon as cloud cover/precipitation shifts southeast in tandem with the upper trough over the region. Consequently, confidence remains high that the fire weather threat will increase this afternoon through the early morning hours Wednesday. High-resolution guidance suggests peak winds are probable during the 09-15 UTC period Wednesday with gusts between 60-80 mph likely at higher elevation (with locally stronger gusts possible). Critical RH thresholds will likely be maintained through the overnight period across western Los Angeles to Ventura and eastern Santa Barbara counties, but may recover into the upper teens southward along the coast. ..Moore.. 01/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad trough across the West will undergo intensification today. A strong mid-level jet will develop in the western Great Basin and California. At the surface, high pressure will strengthen in the Great Basin into the lower Colorado River Valley. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient may be sufficient to support elevated to critical fire weather by this afternoon. RH will be the main uncertainty during the afternoon, but around 20% appears likely and near 15% is certainly possible. Winds this afternoon will peak at 20-25 mph outside of the terrain. Both the offshore gradient and the supporting upper-level winds are expected to increase in magnitude during the evening/overnight into Wednesday morning. The strongest upper-level winds (and thus wind gusts) are most likely around very late today to early Wednesday. How low RH will remain overnight is also somewhat uncertain, but wind strength (25-35 mph) would still support higher-end critical conditions in the typical Santa Ana corridors in LA/Ventura Counties. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... The previous forecast remains on track with some modifications made to reflect recent observed trends and 12z guidance. Regional radars show light to moderate precipitation falling across southern CA - mainly on the windward side of the coastal terrain. MRMS QPE suggests most locations on the lee side of the coastal ranges have not received wetting rainfall, so impacts to fuels should remain limited. 16 UTC surface observations show downslope winds beginning to increase with gusts between 40-60 mph becoming more common at higher elevation. As of 16 UTC, cloud cover is modulating the influence of downslope warming/drying with RH values generally above 30%; however, relative humidity is expected to quickly decline by mid/late afternoon as cloud cover/precipitation shifts southeast in tandem with the upper trough over the region. Consequently, confidence remains high that the fire weather threat will increase this afternoon through the early morning hours Wednesday. High-resolution guidance suggests peak winds are probable during the 09-15 UTC period Wednesday with gusts between 60-80 mph likely at higher elevation (with locally stronger gusts possible). Critical RH thresholds will likely be maintained through the overnight period across western Los Angeles to Ventura and eastern Santa Barbara counties, but may recover into the upper teens southward along the coast. ..Moore.. 01/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad trough across the West will undergo intensification today. A strong mid-level jet will develop in the western Great Basin and California. At the surface, high pressure will strengthen in the Great Basin into the lower Colorado River Valley. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient may be sufficient to support elevated to critical fire weather by this afternoon. RH will be the main uncertainty during the afternoon, but around 20% appears likely and near 15% is certainly possible. Winds this afternoon will peak at 20-25 mph outside of the terrain. Both the offshore gradient and the supporting upper-level winds are expected to increase in magnitude during the evening/overnight into Wednesday morning. The strongest upper-level winds (and thus wind gusts) are most likely around very late today to early Wednesday. How low RH will remain overnight is also somewhat uncertain, but wind strength (25-35 mph) would still support higher-end critical conditions in the typical Santa Ana corridors in LA/Ventura Counties. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a midlevel vorticity maximum will phase with steep midlevel lapse rates over southwestern AZ today. While weak buoyancy will develop atop a dry low-level air mass (inverted-V-type sounding), convection should remain too weak for lightning owing to the limited moisture. Elsewhere, a cold/dry air mass will preclude thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. ..Weinman.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a midlevel vorticity maximum will phase with steep midlevel lapse rates over southwestern AZ today. While weak buoyancy will develop atop a dry low-level air mass (inverted-V-type sounding), convection should remain too weak for lightning owing to the limited moisture. Elsewhere, a cold/dry air mass will preclude thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. ..Weinman.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... The widespread prevalence of surface high pressure and cold continental trajectories is expected to preclude thunderstorm development across the CONUS. Minimal mid-level buoyancy could develop across parts of Arizona this afternoon and evening as lapse rates steepen east of the amplifying trough over the Southwest/Baja vicinity. However, convection should remain very weak in a moisture-starved environment, and no thunderstorms are expected. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... The widespread prevalence of surface high pressure and cold continental trajectories is expected to preclude thunderstorm development across the CONUS. Minimal mid-level buoyancy could develop across parts of Arizona this afternoon and evening as lapse rates steepen east of the amplifying trough over the Southwest/Baja vicinity. However, convection should remain very weak in a moisture-starved environment, and no thunderstorms are expected. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 01/07/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains on Friday/Day 4, as flow ahead of the system remains southwesterly over much of the Southeast. At the surface, a front is forecast to move into the central Gulf Coast region, with a moist airmass located ahead of the front mostly offshore. Thunderstorm activity will be possible from Friday into Saturday along and ahead of the front at the northern edge of this moist airmass in the coastal sections from Louisiana to Florida. From Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8, large-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to persist over the central U.S. In response, high pressure is forecast to remain dominant over much of the continental U.S. late in the Day 4 to 8 period. Due to this cold and dry airmass, thunderstorms will be unlikely. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains on Friday/Day 4, as flow ahead of the system remains southwesterly over much of the Southeast. At the surface, a front is forecast to move into the central Gulf Coast region, with a moist airmass located ahead of the front mostly offshore. Thunderstorm activity will be possible from Friday into Saturday along and ahead of the front at the northern edge of this moist airmass in the coastal sections from Louisiana to Florida. From Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8, large-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to persist over the central U.S. In response, high pressure is forecast to remain dominant over much of the continental U.S. late in the Day 4 to 8 period. Due to this cold and dry airmass, thunderstorms will be unlikely. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop from Thursday into Thursday night from parts of central Texas to the Texas Coastal Plain and into far southwest Louisiana, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a positively tilted trough will move through the central and southwestern U.S. on Thursday, as southwest flow remains over much of the south-central and southeastern U.S. Ahead of the system across parts of the southern Plains, warm advection will take place in the mid-levels, with a very cold airmass at the lower levels. Forecast soundings Thursday morning suggest that MUCAPE could be in the 100 to 200 J/kg range in parts of Texas from the Hill Country to the Coastal Plain. This could be enough for isolated thunderstorm development. During the afternoon and evening, the chance for storms could increase some as a low to mid-level jet strengthens. The greatest chance for storms could be along the middle Texas coast overnight where a moist airmass is forecast to impinge upon the coast. Instability is expected to be too limited for a severe threat. ..Broyles.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A cutoff upper low pressure system within the lower Colorado River Valley into the Gulf of California will slowly continue to sag southeastward on Wednesday. A strong mid-level jet will remain favorably oriented with offshore winds in southern California through mid-afternoon. A strong surface high, though weakening through the day, should remain sufficiently intense to drive strong offshore surface winds across southern California. ...Southern California... Strong surface winds of 25-40 mph (with significant wind gusts within the terrain-favored areas) are expected during the morning into at least the early afternoon. While some locations may experience some RH recovery overnight, RH will begin to drop to around 10-15% as temperatures rise during the day. Given the intensity of the winds, extreme fire behavior appears likely should ignitions occur. Extremely critical fire weather is most likely for portion of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. With high pressure extending farther south than on Monday, critical fire weather will extend to the San Diego vicinity as well. Even though the upper-level winds will weaken along with the offshore gradient, elevated to critical fire weather is expected to continue into Thursday morning. ..Wendt.. 01/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A broad trough across the West will undergo intensification today. A strong mid-level jet will develop in the western Great Basin and California. At the surface, high pressure will strengthen in the Great Basin into the lower Colorado River Valley. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient may be sufficient to support elevated to critical fire weather by this afternoon. RH will be the main uncertainty during the afternoon, but around 20% appears likely and near 15% is certainly possible. Winds this afternoon will peak at 20-25 mph outside of the terrain. Both the offshore gradient and the supporting upper-level winds are expected to increase in magnitude during the evening/overnight into Wednesday morning. The strongest upper-level winds (and thus wind gusts) are most likely around very late today to early Wednesday. How low RH will remain overnight is also somewhat uncertain, but wind strength (25-35 mph) would still support higher-end critical conditions in the typical Santa Ana corridors in LA/Ventura Counties. ..Wendt.. 01/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night across parts of west and central Texas. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, southwesterly anticyclonic will be in place on Wednesday across the southern High Plains as a low moves through northwestern Mexico. Ahead of this system, warm advection will develop across the southern Plains as a low-level jet strengthens Wednesday night. Near this jet, lift may become strong enough for isolated thunderstorm development across parts of west and central Texas. Instability is expected to be minimal, and no severe threat is expected. ..Broyles.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night across parts of west and central Texas. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, southwesterly anticyclonic will be in place on Wednesday across the southern High Plains as a low moves through northwestern Mexico. Ahead of this system, warm advection will develop across the southern Plains as a low-level jet strengthens Wednesday night. Near this jet, lift may become strong enough for isolated thunderstorm development across parts of west and central Texas. Instability is expected to be minimal, and no severe threat is expected. ..Broyles.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is very low today. ...Discussion... Mid-level speed max will strengthen as it digs south across CA and off the Baja Peninsula. This will allow a short-wave trough to settle south of the international border and close off over the northern Gulf of CA by the end of the period. Large-scale ascent/steepening lapse rates across AZ do result in some mid-level moistening that leads to very weak buoyancy; however, forecast soundings do not suggest adequate instability for any appreciable risk of lightning with the weak convection that develops across this region. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Westerly flow is expected to gradually deepen across the southern FL Peninsula tonight as a sharp cold front surges off the southern tip of the state after 09z. A few weak showers are noted along this boundary northwest of FMY, but thunder probabilities are less than 10 percent the rest of tonight. ..Darrow.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Westerly flow is expected to gradually deepen across the southern FL Peninsula tonight as a sharp cold front surges off the southern tip of the state after 09z. A few weak showers are noted along this boundary northwest of FMY, but thunder probabilities are less than 10 percent the rest of tonight. ..Darrow.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Critical fire weather conditions are expected along the southern California coast at the start of the extended period before a relatively quiescent period of limited fire weather concerns across the country - largely driven by recent widespread precipitation and cold temperatures across the country. ..D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - Southern California... Critical fire weather conditions will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period/12 UTC Wednesday along the southern CA coast. Latest water-vapor imagery depicts an upper ridge building along the West Coast with an embedded shortwave trough propagating southward across the Pacific Northwest. This shortwave will amplify over the next 48 hours as it migrates into the lower CO River Valley. A building surface high over the Great Basin coupled with strengthening offshore mid-level winds will induce a strong, prolonged offshore wind event along the southern CA coast beginning on D2/Tuesday and persisting into D4/Thursday. Medium-range deterministic guidance suggests widespread sustained winds between 25-35 mph are expected with gusts between 50-60 mph possible within the coastal terrain. While 25+ mph winds are expected for much of the day, the general ensemble consensus continues to indicate that the peak offshore pressure gradient will occur on Wednesday morning, which may support isolated gusts upwards of 70-80 mph in terrain favored areas. Relative humidity reductions down to 10-15% are expected, and a few locations may see RH values fall into the upper single digits. As such, some locations may experience periods of extremely critical fire weather conditions Wednesday morning and afternoon. Wind speeds will gradually abate beginning early Thursday morning into early Friday as the upper wave shifts east. Model spread regarding the cessation of critical fire weather conditions remains high, but critical wind speeds will likely persist within the higher terrain of Los Angeles and Ventura counties through Thursday morning. Consequently, 70% risk probabilities have been introduced, and may need to be expanded as confidence in the wind forecast increases. ..Moore.. 01/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Jan 6 21:33:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jan 6 21:33:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, one or two of which may be strong to potentially severe, will be possible across parts of western Florida through the remainder of this afternoon and early this evening. ...20z Update... Afternoon visible imagery shows the cold front has gradually moved east/southeast through the remainder of south GA and the FL Panhandle. Behind the front, the intruding arctic air mass will scour remaining instability and moisture, ending the thunderstorm risk across much of the Southeast. The Thunder and Marginal Risk areas have been removed behind the front. Across the remainder of the western FL Peninsula, weak inland advection of mid 60s F surface dewpoints and filtered solar heating are supporting modest buoyancy (~ 500 J/kg of MLCAPE) despite poor mid-level lapse rates of 6 C/km. Shallow convection over the eastern Gulf of Mexico may move inland and pose some risk for an occasional damaging gust or brief tornado, given moderate mid and low-level shear. However, confidence in sustained strong to severe storms is low, as large-scale forcing is expected to weaken and scant buoyancy will confined near the coast. Will maintain the low-end risk for damaging winds and a brief tornado into the early evening. The severe risk should rapidly end later tonight as the cold front moves inland. ..Lyons.. 01/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025/ ...GA/FL vicinity... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the OH Valley embedded within larger-scale troughing over the East. A 100-kt 500 mb speed max over AL will quickly move east of the Carolina coast by early evening with strong westerly flow over FL. In the low levels, a cold front will continue to sweep southeast across the Big Bend of FL through the early afternoon. Low-level moistening and diurnal heating ahead of the front will contribute to scant buoyancy, despite initially poor lapse rates over the region per 12z raob data. A couple of stronger updrafts or small banded segments of convection may yield a localized risk for a damaging gust or two this afternoon. The enlarged hodographs in the lowest 1-2 km and moistening boundary layer could facilitate weak rotation in the strongest cells. Only isolated to widely scattered convective coverage (mostly not yielding lightning flashes) is expected and this activity will push east/southeast during the day. Model guidance shows convection associated with the front moving through the Tampa Bay area late this afternoon into the early evening, with perhaps a lingering strong-storm risk before nocturnal stabilization and frontal passage. Read more