Submitted by Ephraim on Thu, 05/04/2017 - 19:44

 

  1. Lookin At Lee – Ran 2nd to the early favorite Classic Empire as a 2y/o in the Breeders Futurity and 4th in the BC Juvenile. Ran 3rd in the 1 1/8 mile Arkansas Derby with a lot of horse left. The extra 1/8th mile may help in Kentucky if not for the rail pull. Almost any other post and I would use him in my exotic bets but as he stands in the 1hole, I have to toss him. 20/1
  2. Thunder Snow – IRL bred horse, won last 3 races overseas. No horse bred outside the United States has won the Kentucky Derby since 1973 and they generally fare poorly. This horse will not change that. Leaving him out 20/1
  3. Fast and Accurate – 2nd generation Tapit horse, who ran 9th at the 2004 derby. 50/1 odds sound accurate for this one
  4. Untrapped – yet to break maiden, 3 ever maidens to win derby last being Brokers Tip in 1933. 30/1 odds sound short for this one
  5. Always Dreaming – sire Bodemeister ran 2nd in 2012 Kentucky Derby. Convincing pull away win in the Florida Derby. Had a ton of horse left after the 1 1/8th mile race. Should have no problem handling the 1 1/4th mile distance. Expect him to easily hit the board. My personal favorite in the derby. Hoping he holds steady at 5/1 odds but doubt it
  6. State Of Honor – All this horse does is hit the board. Only 1 win in 7 starts but he’s hit in every race that he’s ran including 2nd place finishes in both the Tampa Bay and Florida Derby. This is one I definitely have to use in any trifecta or super bets. 30/1 odds seem a bit long to me. If they stay steady he may rate for some P/S money but expect those to drop
  7. Girvin – top point getter in derby prep races with an impressive early win in the G2 Risen Star and another in the G2 Louisiana Derby. The last one looked like it took all he had though to come out on top at 1 1/8th miles. Don’t think he has the distance to factor here at 1 1/4th miles 15/1 early odds, 1,000/1 odds that I’ll use him in a bet
  8. Hence – Showed some nice late speed in his Sunland Derby win against lesser competition. Had a great workout on 5/3 (today) but still not expecting much from him here though. Could spoil a few super bets at best. I will not be using him. 15/1 odds
  9. Irap – sire Tiznow had a graded stakes record of 12/7/3/2 including 2 BC Classic wins. Ran 4th in the Sunland Derby then rebounded to win the Blue Grass Stakes as a 31/1 long shot but barely held on. Should be a non-factor in the KY Derby. 20/1 odds
  10. Gunnevera – impressive win in the Fountain of Youth on a wet track showing amazing late speed after running far back most of the race. Tried it again in the Florida Derby but just didn’t have enough for more than a 3rd place finish. The extra distance will help him here and I will be using him in my super bet for at least the 3 & 4 spots. He will make a late push for sure. 15/1 odds
  11. Battle Of Midway – 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby after a very good break from the gate and really pushing a fast pace up front with two others. Would need to have a lot more stamina to factor in Kentucky. 30/1 odds sound about right. I will not be using him in anything
  12. Sonneteer – yet to break his maiden. 4th in the Arkansas Derby. Not much to say about the 50/1 early odd long shot except don’t expect another Giacomo out of this guy
  13. J Boys Echo – the winner of the Gotham gets a change of Jockey for the Kentucky Derby as Robby Albarado is out with injury. That’s not why I’m throwing him out though, he just isn’t a great horse. Should be a non-factor 20/1 odds
  14. Classic Empire – winner of 3 out of last 4, all G1 stakes races including the Breeders Futurity, BC Juvenile and Arkansas Derby and a 3rd place finish in the G2 Holy Bull. Early odds favorite at 4/1 and deservedly so. Looks like the class of this year’s 3y/o horses. Will definitely be there at the end. My personal second favorite
  15. McCraken – sire, Ghostzapper won his last 6 races before retirement, all graded stakes including the 2004 BC Classic. Won the G3 Sam F. Davis Stakes back in February, then followed that up with a show finish in the G2 Blue Grass Stakes, his first and only non win in his career 5 starts. I’m looking for him to bounce back in Kentucky and be there to factor in the end if he can run his race, middle of the pack 8 back then break coming out of the back. 5/1 odds
  16. Tapwrit – was my early year favorite for the Kentucky Derby. Taking 2nd in the Sam F. Davis and winning the Tampa Bay Derby. Didn’t really factor after adding 1/8th mile in the Blue Grass finishing 5th. Don’t think he has the stamina to go the 1 1/4th mile. Could be used in long exotics but I won’t be. 20/1
  17. Irish War Cry – the Curlin sired colt won his first 3 races before a less than average ride as the even money favorite in the Fountain of Youth placing 7th and just never really firing. He rebounded nicely in the Wood Memorial winning fairly easily by 4. If he can get out near the lead he can make some noise. Should factor in to the exotics for sure. Worst thing going for him is that no horse has ever won the Kentucky derby from the 17 post. He’s good enough to have a chance to change that though at 6/1 odds
  18. Gormley – inconsistent is how I would best describe this horse even though he’s won 4 of 6 starts. His biggest win was in the G1 Santa Anita Derby against lesser opponents. He’s just out classed by too many others in the Kentucky Derby. If he can get his type of race then he could make a splash at the bottom end of some exotics. He’ll be in my super bet 15/1
  19. Practical Joke – this horse can race. He has driven the stretch and pushed the leaders in all 6 of his starts. Hasn’t had a W since his 2y/o season but has 2P and 1S in his 3 races this year. He’s always there. Expect him to be involved in what should be a pretty big pack coming to the wire. He will be in the tail end of my super and tri bets 20/1 early odds
  20. Patch – his inexperience will be a factor here. Didn’t race as a 2 y/o has only 2 races under his saddle. Took 2nd in the Louisiana Derby after breaking his maiden back in February. Could become a major player in the later Triple Crown races but for the KY Derby, I’m throwing him out. 30/1 early odds

Not much to talk about in regards to the final works for the 20 entrants. Mostly even, quality works across the board. A couple do stand a little. #11 Battle Of Midway and #18 Gormley were the only two hand works of the group. #9 Irap had the longest of the last works going 1 mile in 1:44.20. #6 State Of Honor and #8 Hence both went 4F in a very nice 00:48.80. #7 Girvin went 5F in 00:59.60. And the long shot #12 Sonneteer went a very impressive 4F 00:47:00, a real bullet work for sure.

 

So those are my thoughts on all 20 horses in the 2017 Kentucky Derby. Now here’s my pick 5/14/10/15