1. Firenze Fire – (The 1 post is tied for the 3rd most Derby wins by post with 8) Impressive win back in October last year in the G1 Champagne over Good Magic. After that it’s been all disappointments save a win against much lesser competition returning from a layoff in January. Look for Firenze Fire to misfire in this one. 50/1
2. Free Drop Billy – (The 2 post has won the Derby 7 times) Nice win in the Breeders’ Futurity last October then bounced 4 weeks later in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, placing 9th. Hit the board in three solid Derby prep races after that but no shot in this one. 30/1
3. Promises Fulfilled – (The 3 post has won the Derby 5 times) Wired the Fountain of Youth in his return from a 14 week layoff. That performance had me picking him to upset in the Florida Derby, where I was the one upset as he ran 9th. Still some promise in this one but only in the tail end of exotic bets. 30/1
4. Flameaway – (4 post has had 5 winners) One of the more experienced horses in the race with 9 starts. Ran first or second in his last four races. Could make for some strong trifecta and super betting but he stays far away from the winners circle. 30/1
5. Audible – (post with the most wins in Derby history with 10) I bet against this guy in the Florida Derby and it was foolish as he won with ease. Last years KY Derby winner also won the FL Derby and came out of the 5 hole. Rider, Castellano is boasting an impressive 24% win rate so far this year. In my opinion, we are looking at a repeat of last year with the FL Derby winner taking the KY Derby as well. My pick for the win and love the 8/1 odds
6. Good Magic – (2 winners from the 6 hole) 5-2-2-1 career record for this guy. Solid horse that shows up every race and has hit the board every time so far. Needs to be in any trifecta and super bets for sure and most exactas. If trying for a longshot is your thing, this is the best horse for that this year at 12/1
7. Justify – (6 winners from this spot) Heavy favorite in all three starts in his young career, and rightfully so, winning all with ease. Comes in the favorite again here and it’s understandable why. Trainer Bob Baffert has won 34% of his horses starts in 2018 so far and rider Mike Smith has been one of the hottest jockeys over the past decade. Only knock on him is no 2 year old competition. Rightful 3/1 favorite
8. Lone Sailor – (8 winners out of the 8 hole) Had a busy, 5 race, two year old campaign which was kind of all over the place. Really struggled in January with his first race back from a 7 week layoff but improved with 2 solid second place finishes in his last two outings and posting best speed figures yet in those two with a 95 last time out. Still should not figure in this one but could add value to exotic bets. 50/1
9. Hofburg – (4 winners) Not a lot of experience for this one but an impressive second in the FL Derby. No real threat to win but could definitely hit the board. I think he’s better than the 20/1 oddsl he was given and will use him in my exotics for sure.
10. My Boy Jack – (second most wins in derby history with 9) Only G1 experience comes in the BC Juvenile Turf last year, where he ran 7th. Couple G3 wins in what has already been a busy career. Usually I cheer for the Desormeaux brothers, but I just can’t get behind this horse. 30/1 odds
11. Bolt d’Oro – (2 winners from this post) was the early 2 year old favorite for this years KY Derby before running third in the BC Juvenile last year. Bounced back from that performance with two monster speed figures of 101 and 102 in win and place finishes. Very solid horse and could get there for an upset. I’ll be using him in all tri and super bets. 8/1
12. Enticed – (3 winners) has a few graded stakes wins but nothing too impressive. Hit 95 and 93 for speed figures his last 2 outings. Gonna need better than that to factor here though. Nothing very enticing about this one. Throw him out. 30/1
13. Bravazo – (5 winners) Ran a 64 speed figure in his last race. I don’t need to say anything else. 50/1
14. Mendelssohn – (2 winners) very popular pick with a lot of the “pros”. Good looking horse and deserves some of the acclaim. Mostly a turf runner but did have an impressive 18 ½ length win on the dirt in the UAE Derby back in March. It’s hard to not pick this horse, but I’m not. Must be used on top in every exotic as he will be near the front. My second pick 5/1
15. Instilled Regard – (3 winners) has 90+ speed figures in his last 4 races. Not a great horse but better than the 50/1 morning line odds.
16. Magnum Moon – (5 winners) The other undefeated horse in the race. Impressive wins in the Rebel and AR Derby. Bullet time in his last work going 4F in :47/2. Should be there at the end to possibly factor in longer bets. Should be used in all tri and super bets and I’ll be using him in exactas too. 6/1
17. Solomini – (no horse has ever won the KY Derby from this post) this guy had some early buzz but has really fallen off the radar lately. Easily beaten in his last two outings by the 16 horse. Look for the 17 hole to remain winless for another year. 30/1
18. Vino Rosso – (2 winners) Has one good race to draw from, a win in the Wood Memorial. Did show up huge for it though and it was his last race, so could be coming into form. Not looking for a win here but could hit the board. Should be in longer exotic bets. 12/1
19. Noble Indy – (1 winner) the fourth of Todd Pletchers horses in this one. Also the worst of his horses. Barely won the LA Derby. Not worth talking about too much here. 30/1
20. Combatant – (1 winner) the only horse to ever win from the 20 hole was Big Brown back in 2008. This horse is not BB. Beaten badly by most horses in this race already. Throw him out. 50/1

This is the toughest field that I can recall for a KY Derby in probably a decade. I don’t love any of the favorites and could see any of 5 or 6 horses winning this one. I’m going out on a small ledge this year with my pick but I gotta stick to my gut. Here’s what y straight super bet will be 5/7/14/16